Question:
To stage a successful invasion, China needs to strengthen her navy and to acquire superiority in the air. Those two factors weren't weighed in China's favor the last time they indulged in sabre- rattling. Bombardment with long range artillery and surface-to- surface missiles would also be quite useful in softening any coastal resistance.

The situation is similar to Israel vs Arabs, with the added bonus of a wide stretch of water separating Taiwan from the PRC. An invasion is definitely possible though it would be so financially crippling that China would be foolish to weaken herself to pursue such an endeavour militarily. The cost in human lives would also be huge but arguably sustainable. On the other hand, without US intervention, a successful blockade could result in leaving Taiwan no alternative but to surrender without a PRC soldier putting a foot on Taiwanese soil. (We like to scare our Taiwanese friends, don't we?)

The single most important factor is aerial primacy.

Answer: You underestimate the effect of the terrain. The Israel-Arabsituation is a land based conflict - so its not a goodstragetic model for a hypothetical PRC-ROC conflict scenario.A large body of water changes everything - think Battle of Britianin World War II. If it was not for the English Channel - all thoseguys in London would be speaking German now. I like theidea of using the Battle for Corrigdor as a good example ofhow a harden asian pacific island fortress might be taken ordefended. Static defensive positions on an island can beeventually beaten BUT if the island defenders have an very fast air/sea mobilization capacity and are able to extendtheir defensive parameter so they can fight awayfrom the island then an island might be capable of defendingitself indefinitely (like Great Britian during World War Iand during World War II ). Once naval and air defensesare down the island can be taken by any mainland force..( think of the Norman invasion of Britian, think of the over throw of the Hawaiian Monarchy ).

The PRC has more people than the ROC so it could absorb a greaternumber of casualites. Neither the ROC nor PRC have very powerfulnavies (unlike the UK or the USA ) so I am not sure how anaval blockade would end. Both ROC and the PRC have fairlysophisicated air forces with the PRC has a large battery ofballistic missiles and the ROC has none (depending on theUS defensive umbrella instead ). The problem with a navalblockade for the ROC is that the ROC needs to import its oil and raw material to keep it economy going . The keyissue in a defensive position is the possiblity that a first strikeagainst its air defense system, e.g. a surprise attack against itsairports, could make it vunerable to an invasion. Even if onescrambles ones jets before an attack - if the air ports are destroyedwhere will your jets land? The PRC fired missiles near theROC to publically demostrate that they had the ability to make anon-nuclear ballistic missile first strike against the ROC.If the PRC missile battery becomes permanent threat forthe ROC defenses then the ROC defense group mightwant to consider modifying their current stragetic model.

* put the ROC airforce on a permanent standby alert ready to be deployed against the PRC in a several minutes, e.g USA SAC.* Install anti missile batteries to protect airports and harbors, Harden key installations to be resistant to damage and and redesign/rebuild airports/harbors so they are more easily and quickly repaired.* make it more difficult to find and target your air defense/offensive systems by using more mobile military defensive/offensive systems. That the use of air craft carrier groups, landbased VSTOL fighter like the UK Harrier Jets, mobile (truck/submarine/ship) ballistic missile systems, smaller quick deployment troops - paratroopers/ heliocopter base defensive groups, and soforth .

Clearly, the PRC deployment of ballistic missiles and the testing thoseof missiles near the ROC has escalated the cold war betweenthe two Chinas and may start a new arms race between them .This of course would be a real economic boom for the defense industry. It will also put an additional burden on the economies ofChina and Taiwan since the average chinese will be asked tofoot the huge defense bills that come with it. The most effectiveeconomic solution would be to de-escalate the military confrontationand to keep the reunification talks at the diplomatic level so thatmonies can be put into other more useful profitable economicventures (like power plant construction, roads, bridges, waterpurification plants, education, health care facilities, and soforth) .But who said life was simple? (9_9)